POSTED:  August 1, 2023

The Next Generation Fire Model (NGFM) is a software tool for estimating the probability of ballistically-induced fires in aircraft dry bays. Version 1.1 provides an initial capability for determining probability of ignition for a limited set of scenarios involving steel fragments against aluminum structures. Future research, development, and validation efforts intend to improve the prediction performance found in version 1.1 as well as expand the model’s scope to other threats and scenarios.


Text CSV file containing data describing threat and target structures involved. Threat-related inputs include threat mass, impact velocity, and orientation.  Target-related inputs include a description of the plates representing the skin and structure of the target (e.g., material types, thicknesses, spacing, and orientations) and additional inputs describing the fuel in the fuel tank.


Model Access Instructions

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