In case you”ve forgotten the adage that “uncertainty is the only certainty,” Picatinny Arsenal”s Statistics Group is prepared to remind you. Its latest initiative known as “Uncertainty Quantification” focuses on studying engineering modeling and simulation uncertainty from a statistical standpoint and leveraging it as a more credible approach to weapon and munition product development.
Uncertainty Quantification, or UQ, is a family of statistical methods which identifies and exploits uncertainties or unknown information in engineering models and simulations. While it potentially could apply to a wide variety of scientific topics being studied (such as weather events), Picatinny”s statistics group focuses on military equipment and technologies, exploring uncertainties in system behavior, such as weapon and munition performance and design.
In other words, instead of asking, “What do I know about this system,” the team asks, “What don”t I know about this system,” and then determines possible outcomes, using a series of statistics, mathematics, reliability engineering, probabilistic, and risk analysis tools and techniques.